Analysis: Bitcoin has recorded a net loss for 22 consecutive days, and the MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 0.32

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin has been in a state of realized net loss for 22 consecutive days, meaning that trades where the selling price is lower than the buying price continue to dominate, and holders are closing positions at a loss. The MVRV Z-Score indicator has dropped to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that valuations have significantly cooled, with premiums almost completely washed away, and the market is no longer expensive.

If this indicator falls below zero, it will enter a deeply undervalued and capitulation zone; if it rises above the historical average, it will signal a valuation recovery. The lowest point of realized net loss occurred on June 6, reaching $1.2 billion, and has now narrowed to about $1.1 billion, roughly half of the extreme capitulation value of $2.2 billion in 2022. Analysts point out that market pressure is evident, but valuations have reset, and the valuation discount itself is a positive signal. The trigger for improvement is when realized net profit and loss return to zero and above, and MVRV Z remains positive; the main risk is that losses deepen again to the extreme levels of 2022 and MVRV Z falls below zero.