Analysis: The trading price of Bitcoin is still about 21% higher than its realized price, and no bottom signals have yet appeared
By: rootdata|2026/04/01 05:42:02
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According to CoinDesk, the gap between Bitcoin's spot price and its realized price (the average cost basis of all on-chain tokens weighted by their last transaction time) is narrowing, approaching the levels seen at the bottoms of past cycles. However, on-chain data shows that the market has not yet experienced a typical capitulation sell-off. Currently, Bitcoin's realized price is about $54,286, the spot price is about $68,774, and the premium is about 21%. The bottom signal of the 2022 bear market was when the spot price fell below the realized price, which occurred when the spot was about 15% lower than the realized price at the cycle low.
The current 21% premium indicates that the average holder is still in profit. To reach the realized price, Bitcoin would need to drop about 20% to $54,000. Notably, the speed of the premium's contraction, from about 120% at the end of 2024 to 21% after 15 months, is the fastest approach to the realized price line outside of a market crash.
Other on-chain signals also indicate that the market has not completed its reset: the Coinbase premium index has returned to negative values, suggesting weakened institutional demand. Analysts believe that although Bitcoin has maintained a range of $65,000 to $70,000 for five weeks, the inflow of over $1 billion into ETFs in March shows there are buyers, but the market has not yet gone through the painful process that historically marks a bottom.
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