Bond traders bet that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike exceeds 50%
By: rootdata|2026/05/05 22:42:01
0
Share
According to Jinshi News, bond traders are increasing their bets that the Federal Reserve's next policy move may be an interest rate hike rather than a cut. Swap contracts linked to central bank rate decisions indicate that the market expects a probability of over 50% for the Fed to raise rates before cutting them, prior to April next year. Lawrence Gillum, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at LPL Financial, stated that the possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but as the duration of the Iran conflict extends, this possibility will gradually decrease.
You may also like
The large models in the United States are moving towards closure in the name of security
The government successfully inserted itself as an approver between commercial AI models and their users for the first time.
From the white-haired stock god to the billionaire fund mogul, the smart people shorting Nvidia are all getting rich using the same framework
Give up on heavily investing in Nvidia's "nine major bottlenecks"! This article analyzes the underlying logic behind top AI investors making billions: physical infrastructure such as electricity, HBM, and optical interconnects are the true keys to wealth in AI hardware.
Morning Report | CoinEx becomes a key hub for Iran to evade sanctions, involving over $3.8 billion in funds; Kalshi seeks a new round of financing, with a valuation potentially rising to $40 billion
Overview of Important Market Events on June 25
Global Launch: As predictions become the most scarce asset in the AI era, Manadia is defining the next generation of the value internet
The trusted AI prediction ecosystem Manadia, which has secured $7 million in funding from well-known institutions like OKX, will globally launch in June. The core token UMXM has already been listed on multiple mainstream platforms, inviting you to seize the new blue ocean of the trillion-level predi...
Why do cryptocurrency projects always like to change their names?
In many cases, the old names of encryption projects have no competitive advantage, only historical baggage.
Who is footing the bill for the $64 billion accounting frenzy?
Affected by Bitcoin falling below $60,000, publicly listed companies heavily invested in this asset are facing huge paper losses and valuation discounts, and their debt structure and accounting standards may trigger structural liquidity risks in the future.
I never expected that the first application of AI x Crypto would be in security auditing
AI has accelerated attack efficiency and also promoted the upgrade of defense systems. The security audit sector is undergoing a transition from a dividend model to a competitive model.
What is your view on Binance's competitive advantages?
When the dividends of rule arbitrage gradually approach zero, can we produce product strength, governance capability, and trust that are commensurate with its scale?
ETH has entered a non-consensus phase, and the turning point is approaching!
This has nothing to do with the Ethereum Foundation or Ethlabs; Ethereum needs to win by solving real problems.
The shift in the cloud of the air: from despising stablecoins a year ago to the high-profile entry of capital today
It can continue to question the cost-effectiveness of stablecoins in the G10 currency corridor, but it cannot ignore the structural opportunities of stablecoins in emerging markets, corporate finance, and on-chain settlements.
The survival dilemma of small and medium exchanges behind the withdrawal anomalies exposed by AscendEX
The living space is constantly being compressed.
Why Is Bitcoin Falling Below $60K? 5 Key Market Drivers Explained
Bitcoin has dropped sharply amid ETF outflows, Strategy stock weakness, AI stock rallies, and changing Fed expectations. Explore the key forces driving BTC’s latest correction and what traders should watch next.
Bitcoin vs. Gold in 2026: Which Asset Performs Better in Different Markets?
Bitcoin vs. gold in 2026: Why are both assets falling, and what does their changing correlation mean? Discover what drives Bitcoin and gold prices and how traders can navigate different market conditions.
The cryptocurrency industry has entered the "Show Me" era: merely relying on vision is no longer enough
The awareness level of the audience in the cryptocurrency industry—including media, institutions, and retail investors—is steadily increasing, and this trend has become a foregone conclusion.
Morning News | The draft amendment to the People's Bank of China Law aims to clarify the legal status of digital renminbi; South Korea will transfer about 40 unregistered virtual asset service providers to law enforcement agencies
Overview of Important Market Events on June 24
Interpreting the Ethereum Foundation's new structure: Reaffirming self-sovereignty amid institutional trends
The Ethereum Foundation has announced a new five-layer working framework, clarifying the focus of future development and reaffirming its commitment to decentralized core values amidst the wave of institutionalization.
Former SpaceX engineer reconstructs the financial execution system using first principles
Plan Execution Lab completes angel round financing for Singapore family office, with a valuation of 50 million USD.
Tidal Investment: We still have a positive outlook on the AI industry chain, but the reasons have changed
The intense financing by tech giants has triggered a panic of "AI peak," but the soaring capital expenditures of the five major cloud vendors and the bottlenecks in physical infrastructure indicate that the AI investment cycle is far from over; the second half of this grand performance has just begu...
The large models in the United States are moving towards closure in the name of security
The government successfully inserted itself as an approver between commercial AI models and their users for the first time.
From the white-haired stock god to the billionaire fund mogul, the smart people shorting Nvidia are all getting rich using the same framework
Give up on heavily investing in Nvidia's "nine major bottlenecks"! This article analyzes the underlying logic behind top AI investors making billions: physical infrastructure such as electricity, HBM, and optical interconnects are the true keys to wealth in AI hardware.
Morning Report | CoinEx becomes a key hub for Iran to evade sanctions, involving over $3.8 billion in funds; Kalshi seeks a new round of financing, with a valuation potentially rising to $40 billion
Overview of Important Market Events on June 25
Global Launch: As predictions become the most scarce asset in the AI era, Manadia is defining the next generation of the value internet
The trusted AI prediction ecosystem Manadia, which has secured $7 million in funding from well-known institutions like OKX, will globally launch in June. The core token UMXM has already been listed on multiple mainstream platforms, inviting you to seize the new blue ocean of the trillion-level predi...
Why do cryptocurrency projects always like to change their names?
In many cases, the old names of encryption projects have no competitive advantage, only historical baggage.
Who is footing the bill for the $64 billion accounting frenzy?
Affected by Bitcoin falling below $60,000, publicly listed companies heavily invested in this asset are facing huge paper losses and valuation discounts, and their debt structure and accounting standards may trigger structural liquidity risks in the future.
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com
