Data: 20% of active BTC investors are currently in a state of unrealized losses, and the market has entered a mild devaluation range

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost published an on-chain indicator interpretation on the X platform, analyzing the current profit and loss structure of Bitcoin positions in the market through the core economic indicator TMM (True Market Mean) and the AVIV ratio. The TMM indicator excludes long-term untransferred and partially permanently lost dormant Bitcoins, only accounting for the average holding cost of actively traded chips in the market, with the current value around $76,700. This level has become a significant price resistance, as during the May market, when the price reached this point, many investors exited to break even.

The accompanying AVIV (Active Value / Investor Value) ratio currently hovers around 0.8, within the valuation discount range, indicating that the average floating loss for all active BTC investors is 20%. Historically, at the bottom of bear markets, this indicator has dropped to 0.5 to 0.6, corresponding to investor losses of 40%-50%. The current loss magnitude has not yet reached extreme bear market levels.

The analyst also pointed out that even with a large influx of institutional funds and Bitcoin ETFs injecting massive liquidity in this cycle, Bitcoin still follows its own cyclical patterns. In the short term, there is no need to wait for the indicators to drop to historically extreme low levels before a rebound occurs, but it is necessary to acknowledge the current pressured environment of widespread losses among market participants.