Viewpoint: The current market trend is different from previous bear market rebounds; Bitcoin at $60,000 may already be the bottom of this cycle

According to The Block, crypto research firm K33 stated that despite Bitcoin's decline of about 6% after retesting the 200-day moving average of approximately $82,000 this month, the low of about $60,000 in February this year may still represent the largest pullback of this cycle.

K33's research director Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rebounds in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market has experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average, and market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a mild adjustment rather than a precursor to a new round of deep declines.

K33 also noted that institutional capital flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F data shows that institutional investors collectively reduced their holdings by about 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC; among them, neutral strategy firms like Jane Street and Millennium contributed most of the reduction.

Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth largest five-day outflow since the launch of the U.S. spot ETF. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC approaches the ETF cost basis, reflecting that investors tend to stop losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing a deep pullback.